More A-roid fallout (this time with research!)

I liked all sports, but always believed that football was the best. I always longed for football season and Sundays glued to the TV. But this year felt different–I’ve been longing for baseball ever since October. At least twice a week since Christmas, I’ve said out loud “I miss baseball.” I come to realize baseball is my true love and my favorite sport. Now with this whole Arod announcement–to realize what I love is fake–it makes me feel sick.

Now that I’m unemployed, I have a lot more time on my hands and decided to do a little research. Why am I so upset? Why am I bothered? Because steroids cheated the game of baseball. Not just the retired players who saw their milestones passed, but the fans. The game we’ve been watching the past 15 years isn’t what baseball is supposed to be. Look at some of the stats I’ve managed to accumulate.^*

• The top six all-time single-season home run hitters have ties to steroids.

• Of the top 24 single-season home run hitters, 14 happened after 1961 (when Maris broke Ruth’s record). All 14 of those seasons occurred after 1996. For 35 years, no one hit more than 53 home runs. In the past 12 years, it happened 14 times. Of the nine greatest home runs seasons that occurred prior to 1961, four were held by Babe Ruth.

• Of the top 14 all-time career home run hitters, seven have played during the past 15 years. The history of baseball dates back over 120 years ago. To have half of the greatest power hitters play over the same 15-year stretch of a 120-year old sport seems highly unlikely (if I had any knowledge of probability or statistics, I’d calculate the odds). Of the seven who played this decade, only two do not have ties to performance enhancing drugs (which doesn’t mean they’re clean–they just haven’t been caught). Seven of the all-time top 14 home run hitters played the same era and we know five of them were juicing.

• In 1988, the MLB home run leader was Jose Canseco with 42. In the 20 years since 1988, the MLB leader always hit more than 42 home runs–including the strike-shorten season of 1994. In the 20 years prior to 1988, 42 home runs would have lead MLB nine times.

• Sticking with the 1988 theme, look at the rosters of the two teams that played in the World Series. The A’s had only three players with more than 12 home runs–two of which were steroid pioneers McGwire and Canseco. The Dodgers had only three players with double digit home runs and Kirk Gibson lead the team with a meager 25. Twenty years later, Jayson Werth hit 24 home runs and finished fourth on the 2008 Phillies World Series team.

• This is a chart of home run leaders by decade. The past two decades show at least a 30 percent increase over the previous two decades. Stargell and Schmidt averaged 305 home runs over their perspective decade. Arod hit 156–half of that–in only three steroid-aided years with Texas.

• Mike Schmidt was the premiere power hitter of the 80s but thanks to skewed modern satistics, he’s only Adam Dunn. Think I’m exaggerating? In Schmidt’s 18 seasons, he had only three years with more than 38 home runs. In Dunn’s eight seasons, he’s had five straight years of at least 40. Look at Schmidt and Dunn’s career stats over per 162 games in five key categories:

• Darryl Strawberry–considered one of the 80s great power hitters–only topped 30 home runs three times from 1983-1991. He was a .260 hitter. Interestingly, from 1992-1997 he never topped 11 home runs. But in 1998–the year of the steroid chase–he came out of nowhere to hit 24 bombs.

• Dave Winfield–one of the most feared hitters of the 80s–only topped 30 home runs three times. Same with Dave Parker, Dwight Evans, and Andre Dawson. They were the power hitters of the 80s. Meanwhile Carlos Delgado has done it 11 times but probably wouldn’t be considered the 11th most feared slugger of his decade. Jim Thome has done it 12 times–and wasn’t even an All-Star for seven of those seasons!

• Which lead me to more research and the next chart.

  I know All-Star selections isn’t an exact science, but I took the top power hitters of the 80s and four of the most consistent power hitters of this decade. All were/are power-hitting who weren’t paid to field or steal bases–just hit home runs. The guys from the 80s aren’t going to be in the Hall of Fame; we’ll hafta wait and see on the active players. The subjects for this chart are kinda arbitrary–but I was looking for specific types of players (good–but not great–power hitters of their respective generation). Look at the higher percentage of All-Star appearances in regard to 30-HR-seasons for the 80s players. That was a time when 30 home runs meant something. Today, 30 bombs means you might get to bat fifth. If I had more time or motivation, I’d find out the percentage of all 30-HR seasons that received All-Star selections. My guess is the percentage is much higher on players who played 1980-95 than 1995-2008.

There has been a massive home run explosion over the past 15 years; there has been a massive steroid explosion over the past 15 years. Many want to debate the affect of steroids on baseball; I say the data proves there is no debate. Before Arod flunked his test I believed that while most players were juicing, that wasn’t the sole explanation for the power increase. But when you look at who the supposed elite players were over the past 15 years and how most of them have been linked to steroids, it’s impossible to say what has been happening is normal. The ridiculous power numbers we’ve witnessed isn’t baseball–not in the natural way the game was meant to be played. I feel betrayed because the game I’ve watched the past 15 years is fake–no more real than WWE. The competition might be real, but the results are all fake. Every home run I’ve cheered for was probably drug-aided. That’s not baseball–it’s chemistry. I know it still takes eye-hand coordination and skill to hit a baseball. I know that even if I was given the best drugs in the world, I still couldn’t do it. But that doesn’t make it okay. All the players I’ve rooted for over the past decade weren’t real and that’s what bothers me. I feel cheated.

* All stats and data collected from baseball-reference.com